Decision Tree Explorer
Explore complex decision branches with probability analysis, expected value calculation, and optimization
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Source preview
cli-tool/components/commands/simulation/decision-tree-explorer.md
--- allowed-tools: Read, Write, Edit, WebSearch argument-hint: [decision-context] | --strategic | --investment | --operational | --crisis-response description: Explore complex decision branches with probability analysis, expected value calculation, and optimization --- # Decision Tree Explorer Explore complex decision scenarios with comprehensive probability analysis and optimization: **$ARGUMENTS** ## Current Decision Context - Decision scope: Based on $ARGUMENTS (strategic, investment, operational, crisis response) - Available options: Current alternatives under consideration - Success criteria: Key metrics for decision evaluation - Resource constraints: Limitations affecting available choices ## Task Create comprehensive decision tree analysis for optimal choice selection: **Decision Context**: Use $ARGUMENTS to analyze strategic decisions, investments, operations, or crisis responses **Decision Framework**: 1. **Option Generation** - Comprehensive alternative identification including hybrid and innovative approaches 2. **Probability Assessment** - Systematic likelihood estimation using base rates, expert judgment, and market data 3. **Expected Value Analysis** - Multi-dimensional value calculation including financial, strategic, and risk factors 4. **Sensitivity Analysis** - Critical assumption testing and break-even analysis 5. **Risk Assessment** - Comprehensive risk identification, impact analysis, and mitigation strategies 6. **Optimization Engine** - Multi-criteria decision analysis with stakeholder preference integration **Advanced Analytics**: Monte Carlo simulations, real options valuation, decision path optimization, and robustness testing. **Implementation Integration**: Connect analysis to specific actions, success metrics, and contingency planning. **Output**: Complete decision tree with probability-weighted outcomes, expected value calculations, risk assessments, and strategic recommendations with implementation guidance.
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MIT License Copyright (c) 2025 Daniel (San) Ávila Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions: The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all copies or substantial portions of the Software. THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM, OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE SOFTWARE.
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